DataVoyant™ analysis indicates that internal combustion engines (ICE) are set to dominate vehicle fleets for the foreseeable future.
Battery technologies, fuel cells, and autonomous vehicles (AVs) are set to bring unprecedented change in the mobility industry. Today, for the first time, AMPLYFI unveils a body of AI-powered research that maps out the likely timescales that could guide corporate R&D strategies for decades to come.
Business intelligence firm AMPLYFI has utilised its flagship product DataVoyant™ to harvest and analyse around 80,000 documents held across the surface and deep web to identify the key trends relating to the automotive and mobility industries, and plot out expected inflection points in the delivery of technologies that are dominating the media agenda today.
Showcasing its suite of products and world-leading AI-powered capabilities at the Frankfurt Motor Show (12th to 22nd September 2019) for the first time this year, AMPLYFI will be available alongside a number of leading UK tech and mobility companies at the Department for International Trade (DIT) pavilion.
AMPLYFI’s world-first analysis identified a number of key trends and insights:
Patent Analysis: Lithium battery technologies expected to peak around 2025
DataVoyant™ analysis indicates that in the near-term, patent activity surrounding battery technologies will focus on improving Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries. With the rise of Electric Vehicles (EVs) and the applications for Li-ion batteries ever increasing, it is likely that development in Li-ion will be focused on increasing their efficiency, charging cycles, and lifetimes.
Patent analysis: Battery technologies patent analysis (to 2038)
DataVoyant™ projections indicate that, unless alternative battery technologies come to the fore or major unforeseen breakthroughs are achieved, lithium technologies are expected to peak around 2025. Looking further ahead, the analysis indicates that the long-term outlook for fueling and decarbonising vehicles post-2040 is increasingly likely to be hydrogen and fuel cells.
To understand the markets of strategic importance for developments in battery technologies, AMPLYFI analysed trends in sources of patents concluding that Europe is set to continue to lag behind the USA, Japan, China and South Korea.
Drive train outlook: EVs await significant breakthrough
Whilst developers are committing to EV strategies, sales (historically underpinned by subsidies) remain relatively low, with EV and alternatively fueled vehicles making up 9.2% of the total new car sales market in the EU (ACEA).
Echoing this sentiment, DataVoyant™ projections indicate that whilst their trends exhibit a general decline from around 2025, internal combustion engine (petrol and diesel) technologies will continue to dominate vehicle fleets for the foreseeable future.
In its wake, Hybrid followed by EVs are set to continue to be the secondary options for vehicle fleets, before hydrogen fuel cell technologies come to the fore in 2050.
Projected Trends in Drive Chain Technologies (to 2038)
Autonomous vehicles: are we ready yet?
Fully autonomous (or self-driving) vehicles are another major focus for exhibitors this year at the Frankfurt Motor Show, with exhibitors showcasing latest innovations and discussions being held around the expected timeframe for widespread adoption.
DataVoyant™ analysis of global autonomous vehicle (AV) patents indicates that AVs and self-driving cars are firmly on the hype cycle phase of their evolution curves with widespread adoption unlikely before 2050.
DataVoyant™ projection analysis: fully autonomous vehicle outlook (to 2038)
Leading up to that date, the focus for developers is likely to be on developing technologies serving the “first and last” mile elements of journeys i.e. airport transfers, and the infrastructure needed to ensure that AVs can be rolled-out at scale. In its analysis of the AV landscape, DataVoyant™ analysis pointed towards semi-autonomous technologies such as lane assist, auto-braking, and self-parking systems as the key focus for development in the short-medium term.
Commenting on the research findings, Chris Ganje, CEO and co-founder of AMPLYFI, said:
“We’re incredibly proud to showcase our world-leading technology on the international stage and illustrate how AI and machine learning can generate crucial insights for businesses.
“Providing our clients with unbiased machine-driven windows into the future is transforming how they shape, monitor, and adjust their strategies.”
“As we strive towards reducing the impact of human activity on the environment, it is essential that we gain an understanding of the future technologies that will take us to that point.
“In equipping businesses with these insights, we are using our AI-powered research to radically increase the rate of discovery and innovation. In the process, we are also freeing businesses from substantial time and cost pressures that might be incurred through typical business intelligence. The future of mobility is fascinating and we look forward to playing a part in working with organisations to shape the future of the industry.”
AMPLYFI’s unique DataVoyant™ platform uses cutting-edge technology to locate, harvest, read, and analyse data from the Surface and Deep Web held across academic papers, patents, government reports, databases, journals, or news items, to find early warning signals and statistically quantify trends that can help businesses make smarter, faster decisions.